Probability with an Abacus: Understanding SGLs

[IanDC]

The chance of actually seeing things also relates to the number of games played so if 100's of positions are played every day, back to back SGL at 400-1 for Sci or 1111-1 for non sci will probably happen most weeks & at 8000-1 someone should be telling us about 3 in a row soon

[Ktulu]

Interesting. I enjoy reading your articles Heroic.

Whiplash, I didn't know you could have 2 SGL at once. Oh and did I tell you about my 4 SGL i got with England halfway thru the middle ages? Let me just say, Revivalist and Synseer was whining, hahhaha!

[Hrathnir]

I got a SGL through a hut tech yesterday.

Took me forever to get polytheism with my bad sumy economy though. :-)

[Mo D]

From a hut??? Are you sure? Can you recreate this?

It's my understanding that tech from huts DO NOT give SGLs.

[CrudeDirk]

I have a memory of this happening too, a SGL from a hut tech.

[Hrathnir]

I am 99% sure. It was like turn 60 or so. I found a hut surprisingly close to an enemy hit it and it gave me the message that I have gotten a great leader half way through the turn timer as soon as I opened the hut.

I can not recreate, but it is now my understanding that hut techs do give you the % of a sgl.

[Heroic]

Very interesting. That would significantly increase the value of a expansionist civ.

[Alski]

expan/sci anybody?

[(THG) Anittas]

Heroic says: "Our 9.75% = 100% - 90.25%"

I'm not good at math, but how can you say that you can get a 10-percent chance of getting a SGL?

If you have a 5-percent chance of getting a SGL for each new researched tech, then you cannot say that you get a 10-percent chance for getting a SGL for every two new researched techs.

Look: 5/100 + 5/100 = 10/200, not 10/100. Ten out of two-hundred is the same as 5-percent. You go back to square one.

The chance of getting a SGL remains the same: 5-percent. True, if you research more techs , the chance of
eventually getting a SGL remains -- but it never improves! The only improvement is the remaining hope of getting the SGL.

[Don K Hotay]

Laugh my fuggin ass off! Is this a breakthrough in mathematics? Should we add denominators when summing fractions? I think it would revolutionize the world ;D

[plattfuss]

[CiverDan]

I had 2 SGL's back to back in a QC game as India (Philo+Code as freebie). First time that has happened to me. If only I wasnt boxed it w/some junk terrain and Swiss Mercs and Samurai defending nearby.

[whiplash]

I've seen this twice. It happened to me once with Philo and the freebie. It happened by my opponent in a 2v2 tourney. In the tourney the opponents got 4 sgl's in 1/2 hour.

[Srayman]

Anittas said:

Heroic says: "Our 9.75% = 100% - 90.25%"

I'm not good at math, but how can you say that you can get a 10-percent chance of getting a SGL?

If you have a 5-percent chance of getting a SGL for each new researched tech, then you cannot say that you get a 10-percent chance for getting a SGL for every two new researched techs.

Look: 5/100 + 5/100 = 10/200, not 10/100. Ten out of two-hundred is the same as 5-percent. You go back to square one.

The chance of getting a SGL remains the same: 5-percent. True, if you research more techs , the chance of
eventually getting a SGL remains -- but it never improves! The only improvement is the remaining hope of getting the SGL.

if you multiply 5/100 by 2/2 you get 10/200, but when you add fractions with common denominators, ie. the bottom part then you simply add the numberator, or top part and then slap on the denominator which gives you 10/100

[tommynt]

ok some noob question:

what do sc great leaders do and what do military ones do?

the mili can build an army scen can get free tech?

but isnt it possible to build a wonder with dem?

but it never works for me