Bomb Iran?

[BoNeHeD]

Is Bush preparing for war with Iran?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted: January 6, 2007
1:00 a.m. Eastern



The USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) aircraft carrier battle group is heading to the Persian Gulf to join the USS Dwight D Eisenhower (CVN 69) aircraft carrier battle group currently on station there. Clearly, the Bush administration is planning to make a show of force to the Ahmadinejad regime in Iran.

For two years, I have been arguing that a military solution to Iran pursuing nuclear weapons is the worst approach imaginable.

In writing "Atomic Iran" in 2005, I argued that Iran is a terrorist state that is brutally repressive to the Iranian people, a state that will utilize nuclear weapons once Iran is capable of developing them. In writing "Showdown with Nuclear Iran" in 2006 with co-author Michael Evans, we argued that Ahmadinejad's radical religious belief that the Twelfth Imam will return from occlusion to occasion the worldwide triumph of Shiite Islam is particularly dangerous since Ahmadinejad believes it will require an apocalypse to bring the Mahdi out of the well.
Yet, consistently I have argued that peaceful regime change from within is the best solution. In 2005, I spent nearly a month walking 200 miles on the Iran Freedom Walk from the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia to the White House to support the Iranian expatriates around the world who want to restore freedom to their homeland.

Repeatedly, I have written urging the State Department to release the millions Congress has authorized through the determined efforts of Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., and former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., as well as the Iran Freedom Support Act, to fund the non-governmental groups in the U.S. and around the world that hold out the possibility that Iran could change from within.

In the second term, President Bush has followed the failed policies of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, a James Baker-protégé, to negotiate with Iran through the EU-3 (France, Germany and the UK) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In both books, I predicted this path would take us to the U.N. Security Council, where we would achieve nothing effective. Russia and China, already allied with Tehran, have recently invited Iran to join their emerging Shanghai Cooperation Pact.

The message of the Iran Study Group was clear – Bush was advised to cut and walk out of Iraq, as fast as possible. In case President Bush missed the point, the James Baker-led group was delivering to him the official word of the Council on Foreign Relations, despite the presence of Ed Meese on the panel. Defiantly, Bush is apparently going to reject the CFR advice, deciding instead to boost our military presence in Iraq, on the premise that more troops will solve the problem. Unfortunately, a surge in troops will probably end up only placing more good U.S. military in harm's way of the civil war in Iraq, a civil war being inflamed by Iran.

I do not agree with the Iran Study Group, or with the CFR Middle East advice, which typically reduces to a formula of securing the oil, then withdrawing the troops and ultimately abandoning Israel. Still, I have to observe that Bush is turning his back on the CFR advice served up by his father at his own peril.

My argument is that military occupation will never produce freedom in Iraq any more than a military strike on Iran will stop the Ahmadinejad regime from pursuing terrorism.

In the Middle East, we continue to miss the point that we must engage the Iraqis, just as we must engage the Iranian people, if fundamental change is to occur. Today, more heroin is coming out of the warlords in Afghanistan than before the U.S. military defeated the Taliban. Meanwhile, Israel has legitimate reason to worry how strongly a U.S. government will support its right to exist, especially when we join the United Nations efforts to leash in Israel, as we did in the recent Lebanon war against Hezbollah.

Putting a second carrier group in the Persian Gulf could easily incite Iran to take a dangerously provocative step. During the last Lebanon war against Hezbollah, Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces embedded with Hezbollah hit an Israeli ship in the Mediterranean with a Chinese-designed cruise missile that Iran has re-engineered and is now manufacturing in Iran. What happens if Iran launches a cruise missile against a U.S. carrier battle group? Should a U.S. ship get hit by an Iranian missile, we would immediately be on the brink of a regional war in the Middle East.

Just withdrawing from Iraq, whether we withdraw fast or slow, is not a solution, any more than Israel withdrawing from Lebanon in 2000 was a solution.

What we have failed to perceive is that our troops in Iraq today are confined within military compounds, with the countryside left undeveloped economically and wide open for the local factional militia who want to terrorize the people and take control.

Hezbollah has succeeded in southern Lebanon precisely because Hezbollah takes funds raised worldwide in so-called charity and applies some of the proceeds to paying the local populace. Who's paying the local populace in Iraq right now? In Afghanistan, the local population is realigning with the warlords precisely because the drug money is permitting the warlords to pay the people.

Besides, what makes President Bush think that a Democratic Congress is going to approve the funds to permit a troop surge in Iraq? Already, liberal Democrats are positioning to cut off funds to continue the war altogether. That was the point of Cindy Sheehan's shouting protest in the halls of Congress this week.

Bush's decisions on the Middle East do not seem to be following a consistent line of thinking. If the president won't listen to Council of Foreign Relations-aligned James Baker, then why is he moving John Negroponte, a strong CFR member, to be the deputy to Condi Rice at the State Department?

Put simply, the Bush administration policy in the Middle East is continuing to fail. Sending more troops to Iraq sends a signal that we intend to maintain the military occupation, even if the Bush administration claims the troops are there only as a temporary "surge." Now, why are we sending a second carrier group to the Gulf if we don't want to threaten war against Iran?

What we should be doing is following the path President Reagan used to bring down the Soviet Union. President Bush should get on the national media and start praising the brave Iranian students who have again taken to the streets to oppose Ahmadinejad. We make a mistake to think that the Ahmadinejad regime has a firm hold on Iran. It does not.

We do not need more war to make progress in the Middle East; we need less war.

Ahmadinejad has just been rebuked in local elections throughout Iran. He is unpopular in Iran because he has failed to keep his election promise to distribute the country's oil wealth to the people. Yet, President Bush and the State Department are doing nothing to exploit that opportunity.

Peaceful change from within is the only way the Middle East will change for the good. Unfortunately, Hezbollah and the drug warlords of Afghanistan so far are the only forces in the region that have discovered the economic keys needed to win the support of the people.

[BoNeHeD]

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Coalition forces on Thursday arrested a suspected member of an elite Iranian unit that has been accused of training and equipping insurgents in Iraq, the U.S. military said.


An Iraqi soldier guards the scene of a car bomb Thursday in eastern Baghdad.

The military said the suspect, who was not identified, is a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Quds Force.

The U.S. military calls the force "a covert action arm of the Iranian government responsible for aiding lethal attacks against the Iraqi government and coalition forces."

The military said the Quds Force suspect was involved in bringing roadside bombs from Iran into Iraq and in training foreign terrorists in Iraq.

The man, captured in the Iraqi Kurdish city of Sulaimaniya, is one of several Iranians in U.S. custody in Iraq.

Also on Thursday, an Iraqi National Police intelligence officer was taken into custody for "suspected involvement in illegal militia activities," the U.S. military said.

Col. Thamir Mohammad Sinah al-Husayni, also known as Abu Turab, was arrested by U.S. troops.

The officer used his position "to direct Iraqi National Police officers to use traffic checkpoints throughout western Baghdad to detain Sunnis, thereby aiding in sectarian evictions in Shia areas," the military said.

The military also said he abused Sunni detainees and used them to obtain ransom.

Meanwhile, two Iraqi soldiers were among three people killed Thursday when a parked car detonated near an Iraqi Army checkpoint, an Interior Ministry official said.

The official said a tow-truck driver hauling a car approached the checkpoint and asked troops if he could drop off the vehicle he was towing near the checkpoint because he had to tow another car.

The driver dropped the car off and left. Moments later, the parked car blew up, the Interior Ministry official said

The bomb exploded in the Habibiya neighborhood at the edge of Sadr City, the densely populated Shiite slum in northeastern Baghdad. Seven people were wounded, including four soldiers.

Coalition forces elsewhere in Iraq on Thursday killed seven suspected al Qaeda in Iraq insurgents and detained eight others, the U.S. military said.

[BoNeHeD]

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran's foreign ministry criticized France on Monday for a blunt warning over the weekend that Europe must prepare for war if Tehran continues to flout international demands to stop producing nuclear fuel.


Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini, shown here in April 2007, criticized France on Monday.

1 of 2 "We hope that such statements are superficial and do not reflect France's realistic and strategic points of view," Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini said Monday, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said in a televised interview Sunday that European nations should consider sanctions outside the U.N. framework if Iran continues to ignore a Security Council call to halt its production of enriched uranium -- and he added, "We must prepare ourselves for the worst."

Asked what "the worst" meant, Kouchner -- co-founder of the the Nobel Prize-winning relief agency Doctors Without Borders -- replied, "That is war, sir."

Kouchner quickly added that he does not believe war to be imminent, but that further sanctions are. He said major French companies including those in the energy sector are being told to stop any further investments in Iran.

Hosseini also said that the use of "convulsive words" ran counter to "the historical, cultural and civilizational dignity and position of France," according to IRNA.

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European Union members Britain, France and Germany have led Western powers in negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program, which Iranian officials insist is aimed at producing civilian electric power. The United States accuses Iran of working toward a nuclear weapon.

"At a time when the issue of Iran's peaceful nuclear activities was removed from the agenda of the EU ministerial session recently, Kouchner's claims are not only in contradiction with EU's macro policies on the Islamic Republic of Iran but are also aimed at questioning credibility and competency of the International Atomic Energy Agency," said Hosseini.

The IAEA, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency, says it has been able to verify that Iran's declared nuclear material has not been diverted from peaceful use. While the IAEA has been unable to verify some "important aspects" regarding the nature and scope of Iran's nuclear work, the agency and Iranian officials agreed on a plan to resolve all outstanding issues, Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei said Monday.

While France opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Kouchner's remarks on Iran follow previous hard-line statements by France's new president, Nicolas Sarkozy. In August, the conservative Sarkozy said a nuclear-armed Iran was "not acceptable."

"I think there is a new France since Sarkozy came to power," Dominique Moisi, an analyst at the French Institute on Foreign Relations, told CNN. "There is a new style of diplomatic content, and obviously there is a new relationship with the U.S. and Washington."

Meanwhile, the former commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East Gen. John Abizaid said Monday the U.S. and its allies can "live with" a nuclear-armed Iran, but they should continue pressuring the Islamic Republic to keep it from developing an atomic bomb.

Abizaid, who retired from the Army in March after three years leading U.S. Central Command, told a Washington think tank that Iran's leadership is pursing "reckless" policies and seeks to dominate the Middle East.

"We need to press the international community as hard as we possibly can, and the Iranians, to cease and desist on the development of a nuclear weapon, and we should not preclude any option that we may have to deal with it," he said.

But he added, "I believe the United States, with our great military power, can contain Iran."

"Let's face it -- we lived with a nuclear Soviet Union, we've lived with a nuclear China, and we're living with nuclear powers as well," he told an audience at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.


"Clearly the development of a bomb in Iranian hands will cause other nations in the region to move in a like direction, and in a very unstable region like that, that is not good news," Abizaid said.

But he said the United States "can deliver clear messages to the Iranians that makes it clear to them that while they may develop one or two nuclear weapons, they'll never be able to compete with us in our true military might and power."

[BoNeHeD]

The fuse is lit to the powder keg. Only Iran can put it out by complying with UN Security Council requests to stop producing Nuclear Materiel.

[BoNeHeD]

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran has reached its long-sought goal of running 3,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium for its nuclear program, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced Sunday in a report on state media.


Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking at the Natanz nuclear facility in April.

The U.N. Security Council had threatened a third round of sanctions against the country if it did not freeze the uranium enrichment program -- which Iran maintains is for peaceful energy purposes, but the U.S. says is to hide a weapons program.

"The West thought the Iranian nation would give in after just a resolution, but now we have taken another step in the nuclear progress and launched more than 3,000 centrifuge machines, installing a new cascade every week," the state television Web site quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.

Still, Ahmadinejad's comments seemed at odds with independent assessments of the status of his country's enrichment program.

As recently as Thursday, a report drawn up by International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei, put the number of centrifuges enriching uranium at closer to 2,000 at its vast underground hall at Natanz.

The 2,000 figure is an increase of a few hundred of the machines over May, when the IAEA last reported on Iran. Still the rate of expansion is much slower than a few months ago, when Tehran was assembling close to 200 centrifuges every two weeks.

As well, Iran continued to produce only negligible amounts of nuclear fuel with its centrifuges, far below the level usable for nuclear warheads, the report said.

"They have the knowledge to proceed much more quickly," said a U.N. official.

While Iran has denied stalling, the official and others suggested it could have decided to proceed at a slower pace as it increases its cooperation with agency investigators looking at past suspicious activities so as to reduce any sentiment to impose new U.N. sanctions.

Former U.N. nuclear inspector David Albright and Jacqueline Shire of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security said the slowdown could be a combination of both "technical difficulties" and "political considerations."


"Iran likely has managed to learn how to operate individual centrifuges and cascades adequately. However, it still may be struggling to operate a large number of cascades at the same time in parallel," they wrote in a report e-mailed to The Associated Press.

"In addition, Iran's leadership may have decided to slow work to overcome technical problems in order to forestall negative reactions that would lend support for further sanctions by the UN Security Council."

[dunedain]

Oh, and by the way...Canada isnt immune to democracy problems.

Our last government proved to be a bunch of crooks, and as usual the jury is still out on our current bunch.

Last i checked we still had a countable...and recountable ballot though.

Dune

[Gracchus]

dunedain said:

Oh, and by the way...Canada isnt immune to democracy problems.

Our last government proved to be a bunch of crooks, and as usual the jury is still out on our current bunch.

Last i checked we still had a countable...and recountable ballot though.

Dune

You still got a monarch too

We moved past that some 200+ years ago.

Its time to join the 21st century, Canada.

;D

[BoNeHeD]

Canada will be absorbed under the SDI umbrella and annexxed as states

[Stormbringer]

politicalhumor.about.com/od/funnypictures/ig/100-Funny-Pictures/Bush-Worst-Disaster.htm

[BoNeHeD]

"A retired Air Force colonel said that U.S. military operations are already under way in Iran. You know what that means, time to break out the old 'Mission Accomplished' banner." --Jay Leno

"The president of Iran has announced, 'We are a nuclear country.' ... You know what's scary about that? The president of Iran knows how to pronounce nuclear." --David Letterman

"The bad news is Iran is capable of making a nuclear bomb. The good news is they have to drop it from a camel." --David Letterman

"The president of Iran announced that they now have the capacity to enrich uranium. The Iranian president added, 'By the way, the girls didn't help at all.'" --Conan O'Brien

"President Bush is denying that he's planning an air strike on Iran.
So, you know what that means? He's planning an air strike on Iran." --David Letterman

"It's now believed Iran has the capability to make nuclear weapons but hasn't done it yet. Which could be big trouble, because if there's one thing the Bush Administration won’t tolerate, it’s a middle eastern country that could have weapons of mass destruction, that doesn’t." --Jay Leno

"Iran said they will inflict harm and pain on the United States if we try to stop their nuclear program. Who's writing their speeches now -- Mr. T?" --Jay Leno

"Bush said, 'We spent some time talking about the Iranian issue and the desire to solve this issue diplomatically, by working together'... Of course, it s a lot easier to be diplomatic when we've only got two armies left to deploy: Salvation and KISS." --Jon Stewart, on Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities

"France and Germany warned Iran this week not to pursue their nuclear research program. In fact, France and Germany warned Iran that if they didn't stop their program they would, you know, warn them again." --Jay Leno

"President Bush criticized the election process in Iran. He said there are groups there who try and suppress the vote, power there is in the hands of the very few, and the whole thing is dominated by religion. Hey, that is our system." --Jay Leno

"The new president of Iraq said that U.S. troops will probably be out of that country in two years. ... The bad news is they'll be next door in Iran." --David Letterman

"According to the New York Times, a commission due to report to President Bush this month will claim that our intelligence regarding Iran's weapon program is inadequate. Today Bush said 'Hey, good enough for me. Let's invade." --Jay Leno

"Russia has agreed to help Iran build a nuclear reactor. Yeah, because when you think well-built nuclear reactor you think Russia" --David Letterman

"Bush is denying reports today that he plans to invade Iran. Oh, we're still going to invade, we just don't have any plans." --Jay Leno

"The president said today the U.S. does not intend to attack Iran but then he said quote 'but you never want a president to say never.' And he said if his position does change he will make that information public in a time-honored appropriate manner -- by leaking it to a gay prostitute." --Bill Maher

"Iran said yesterday they will shoot down any of our drones. You know what our drones are? They're those planes without any pilots. We got the idea for that from Bush and the National Guard." --Bill Maher

"It's been reported that in the event of an emergency situation with North Korea the U.S. is prepared to send 70% of the Marine Corps to the region. According to President Bush this will still allow us to send another 70% to Iran and keep our other 70% in Iraq." --Tina Fey

"Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Iran not to develop their nuclear weapons program. She said, 'President Bush has a map in his office, and he will find you eventually.'" --Jay Leno

"North Korea announced that they have nuclear weapons and they have no plans to give them up. The White House, acting quickly, announced their plan to invade Iran." --Craig Ferguson

"Condoleezza Rice has warned Iran to stop its nuclear program. They say stop the nuclear program or face the next step. ... And the next step being fabrication of evidence and then we march right in." --David Letterman

"The president submitted his annual budget -- $2.5 trillion. Don't kid yourself with this George W. Bush. This guy is sneaky, this guy is cunning, this guy is shrewd. He budgeted the upcoming invasion into Iran under office supplies." --David Letterman
"In a speech today President Bush said contrary to reports, he has no plans to attack Iran. The president said 'That's ridiculous. We didn't even have plans when we attacked Iraq.'" --Conan O'Brien

"Did you see how happy President Bush was yesterday when he found out he won? Man he couldn't decide whether he should give a victory speech or announce the invasion of Iran." --Jay Leno

"An article in last week's New Yorker magazine, by reporter Seymour Hersch, who will apparently talk to anyone, alleges the Pentagon has been conducting secret spy missions inside Iran to identify possible targets ... or a possible full scale invasion. If you are wondering how our already stretched forces will be able to handle invading Iran as well -- shuttle service will be complimentary." --Jon Stewart

"Yesterday, one of Iran's top leaders announced he wanted President Bush to win re-election.
When he heard about this, Bush said, you know, for an evil-doer, he's not such a bad guy." --Conan O'Brien

"The L.A. Times reports that al Qaeda terrorists have been traced to Iran, and President Bush is talking tough. In fact he said he will attack the minute he has evidence his approval rating is under 45 percent." —Jay Leno

"President Bush said today he is looking into if Iran had anything to do with 9/11, but he's not declaring war yet. He said first he wants to know all the facts -- so apparently he's trying a new strategy." —Jay Leno

"In the 9-11 commission report they say that it was Iran — not Iraq — that was helping Al Qaeda. So apparently we invaded the wrong country because of a typo!" —David Letterman

"There is good news tonight for Ahmed Chalabi. It turns out that all along he was providing accurate, truthful, helpful information. Unfortunately, it was to Iran." —Jon Stewart

[whiplash]

Heating up!

www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-10-21-cheney-iran_N.htm

[Don K Hotay]

I say bomb the holy hell out of Iran. We need another war damn it, especially if we want to see gold break a $1000/oz. Plus, they have oil!

[whiplash]

www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IJ30Ak09.html

[Assédix]

That fascist crap is so thoroughly stupid it's almost funny. Too bad it's about real human lives . . .

[whiplash]

Following are excerpts from a speech by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which aired on the Iranian News Channel IRINN on November 7, 2007.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: We have started operating a cascade with 164 [centrifuges]. [The West] made a bit of fuss, but they saw that it had no effect. Therefore, they said to us: "Stop at 164 [centrifuges], and don't progress any further. If you make any more progress, we will take significant measures [against you]." When you weren't paying attention, we made further progress, and today, we have reached 3,000 units. At first, they used to say to us: "Shut down the 3,000 centrifuges, suspend their activities. In other words, close them down and don't enrich [uranium] anymore." Well, the people did not accept this. [The West] then said: "If you stop even for just a short while, we will accept it." The people did not agree to this. Then they said: "Just for one week." We responded: "Impossible." They said: "Just one day." We answered: "Impossible." So they said: "Just pretend you are suspending [the enrichment]." We said: "Impossible."

[...]

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Now they have reached the point where they are saying: "Fine, make do with the 3,000 you already have." Some of them say that. I am referring to the big one [America], the one who seems big...

Crowd: Death to America! Death to America! Death to America!

Ahmadinejad: The [Americans] sent us a message: "If you stop at this point, we will be willing to come and negotiate with you." As your representative, I said to those who brought the message: "We didn't even ask to negotiate with that gentleman (Bush), who is setting terms for us." If any negotiations are supposed to take place, it is the Iranian people that is supposed to set the terms for those bullies and criminals. Who are they to lay down terms for us? What do the other countries say? When I say "others", I am referring to two or three countries. They say: "We accept the 3,000..." The expressions I am using are theirs. They say: "We'll put up with these 3,000 centrifuges, but from now on, you need to reach an agreement with us on their speed, on how many will operate daily, and how many will operate each week." What is our response? We say: Who are you to even have an opinion regarding the Iranian people? We are a member of the IAEA. We operate under IAEA supervision and according to its regulations, like all the other [members].